<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><article>
  <title>Tracking the turning point: an econometric lens on oilseed growth, decomposition and instability in india</title>

      <doi>https://doi.org/10.21276/AATCCReview.2025.13.04.854</doi>
  
  <authors>
          <author>
        <name>Varnika Sharma</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6481-7778</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Ashu Chandel</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5487-0090</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>RK Gupta</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3895-0661</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Subhash Sharma</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6086-0908</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Anju Sharma</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6086-0908</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Geeta Verma</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0417-0800</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Rakesh Kumar</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1366-3351</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Vijit Gupta</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6753-7732</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Vishal Thakur</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9395-3444</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Ujjwal Verma</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7606-6451</orcid>
              </author>
          <author>
        <name>Ritik Thakur</name>
                  <orcid>https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8016-6604</orcid>
              </author>
      </authors>

      <abstract><![CDATA[<p>India’s oilseed sector holds a strategic position in the country’s agricultural and economic framework, not only as a source of edible oil but also as a provider of employment and industrial raw materials. Despite being one of the leading producers globally, India continues to depend heavily on imports to meet its edible oil demand. This study analyzes the performance of nine major oilseed crops—castor, groundnut, linseed, nigerseed, rapeseed-mustard, safflower, sesamum, soybean, and sunflower—over the period 2010–11 to 2024–25, with a focus on growth trends, production drivers, and instability patterns. Using statistical techniques such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Minhas decomposition, and the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, we dissected changes in output into area, yield, and interaction effects, while measuring variability in area, production, and yield across crops. The results reveal that most production growth in recent years has been driven by yield improvements rather than expansion in cultivated area. Crops like linseed and sunflower showed strong gains in yield despite a contraction in area, whereas groundnut and castor expanded in acreage with limited yield progress. High instability was observed in crops such as safflower, sunflower, and soybean, while mustard and castor remained relatively stable. These insights highlight the growing importance of technological advancement, varietal improvement, and sustainable agronomic practices. The study calls for crop-specific policy interventions, especially for unstable and neglected oilseeds. Strengthening research, improving market access, and promoting rainfed resilience will be critical in reducing import dependency and achieving long-term oilseed self-sufficiency in India.</p>
]]></abstract>
  
  <body><![CDATA[<div class="aatcc-article-container"><div class="aatcc-category-label">Original Research Article</div><div class="aatcc-meta-box"><div class="aatcc-authors-wrap"><span class="aatcc-author-item">Varnika Sharma<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6481-7778" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Ashu Chandel<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5487-0090" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">RK Gupta<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3895-0661" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Subhash Sharma<sup>2</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6086-0908" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Anju Sharma<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6086-0908" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Geeta Verma<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0417-0800" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Rakesh Kumar<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1366-3351" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Vijit Gupta<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6753-7732" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Vishal Thakur<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9395-3444" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Ujjwal Verma<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7606-6451" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span> <span class="aatcc-author-item">Ritik Thakur<sup>1</sup><a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8016-6604" target="_blank">
                    <img decoding="async" src="https://orcid.org/sites/default/files/images/orcid_16x16.png" class="aatcc-orcid-icon">
                </a></span></div><div class="aatcc-affiliations-wrap"><div class="aatcc-affiliation-item">
                        <sup>1</sup> Agricultural Statistics, Department of Basic Sciences, Dr YSP UHF, Nauni, Solan, H.P., India
                    </div><div class="aatcc-affiliation-item">
                        <sup>2</sup> Department of Social Sciences, Dr YSP UHF, Nauni, Solan, H.P., India
                    </div></div><div class="aatcc-doi-wrap">
            <a class="aatcc-doi-btn" href="https://doi.org/10.21276/AATCCReview.2025.13.04.854" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.21276/AATCCReview.2025.13.04.854</a>
        </div><div class="aatcc-abstract-section">
                <h3>Abstract</h3>
                <div class="aatcc-abstract-text"><p>India’s oilseed sector holds a strategic position in the country’s agricultural and economic framework, not only as a source of edible oil but also as a provider of employment and industrial raw materials. Despite being one of the leading producers globally, India continues to depend heavily on imports to meet its edible oil demand. This study analyzes the performance of nine major oilseed crops—castor, groundnut, linseed, nigerseed, rapeseed-mustard, safflower, sesamum, soybean, and sunflower—over the period 2010–11 to 2024–25, with a focus on growth trends, production drivers, and instability patterns. Using statistical techniques such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Minhas decomposition, and the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, we dissected changes in output into area, yield, and interaction effects, while measuring variability in area, production, and yield across crops. The results reveal that most production growth in recent years has been driven by yield improvements rather than expansion in cultivated area. Crops like linseed and sunflower showed strong gains in yield despite a contraction in area, whereas groundnut and castor expanded in acreage with limited yield progress. High instability was observed in crops such as safflower, sunflower, and soybean, while mustard and castor remained relatively stable. These insights highlight the growing importance of technological advancement, varietal improvement, and sustainable agronomic practices. The study calls for crop-specific policy interventions, especially for unstable and neglected oilseeds. Strengthening research, improving market access, and promoting rainfed resilience will be critical in reducing import dependency and achieving long-term oilseed self-sufficiency in India.</p>
</div>
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            <a class="aatcc-pdf-btn" href="https://aatcc.peerjournals.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tracking-the-turning-point-an-econometric-lens-on-oilseed-growth-decomposition-and-instability-in-india.pdf" target="_blank">View / Download PDF</a>
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