Volume 10, Issue 1, 2022

Time Series Modelling And Forecasting of Pulses Productivity in Tamil Nadu, India

By admin — November 10, 2022

Introduction Pulses are one of the important segments of the human diet in the Indian subcontinent along with cereals and oilseeds. The split grains of pulses, called dal are an excellent source of high-quality protein, essential amino and fatty acids, fibers, minerals, and vitamins [23]. Pulses are an important component to sustain agriculture production as […]

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Abstract

Pulses are staple protein-rich food for Indian vegetarians, and India is one of the largest producers in the world. Pulse production is influenced by a variety of elements such as rainfall, fertilizer, crop area as well as productivity. Analysis of production behavior, modeling and forecasting of productivity taking all these factors into consideration play vital roles in human nutritional security. The present investigation is an attempt to predict and forecast the productivity of total pulses in Tamil Nadu using time series data. The present study was carried out to efficiently forecast the productivity of black gram, chickpea, green gram, horse gram, red gram, and total pulses in Tamil Nadu. Yearly data were used for the period from 1970 to 2020.  based on the results of model adequacy criteria, the most suitable ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model and Holt’s Linear Trend model are chosen to capture the pulse productivity. Results revealed that Holt’s linear trend model fits best for black gram, chickpea, green gram, and red gram. ARIMA (0,1,1) fits best for horse gram and ARIMA (3,1,0) fits best for the total pulses productivity. The forecasted value of pulses using the best-fitted model shows that there is a steady increase in the productivity of pulses. The productivity of total pulse increases in 2021, 2022, 2023 but slightly decreases in 2024 and again increases in 2025. This study will play an important role in determining the gap between the productivity of and demand for pulses in the future.

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