Agriculture development and its Impact: A Comprehensive Time seriesanalysis of Climate Variables

Climate change poses significant challenges that necessitate the development of policies to manage aggregate input and social costs. To formulate such policies, an analysis of the factors and their current trends must be conducted. This study explores the factors influencing climate change and provides insights into their impacts through changes in arable land and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in India from 1990 to 2020. Utilizing time series analysis, this study examined trends in GHG emissions from agriculture and developed a simulation model to estimate overall GHG emissions through methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that enteric fermentation and agricultural soil are major contributors to methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively, with enteric fermentation contributing approximately 69.33% and agricultural soil contributing approximately 97.66% to methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. Additionally, a higher growth rate was observed for nitrous oxide emissions than for methane emissions, with nitrous oxide emissions showing a 161% increase from 1960 to 2010. Furthermore, a positive correlation (r=0.587) between GHG emissions and changes in the annual mean temperature underscores the direct impact of agricultural emissions on climate dynamics in India, with a regression coefficient factor of 0.176. It is estimated that the overall GHG emissions from agriculture through methane and nitrous oxide emissions will be approximately 695.87 to 818.73 MMTCDE in the year 2030, while the change in annual mean temperature is estimated to be approximately 1.65 ± 0.58o C from 1990 to 2030 in India. This study faces challenges such as uncertainties in long-term climate projections and emission estimates, variability in regional agricultural practices, and the need for more granular data. These findings highlight the urgent need for effective mitigation strategies within the agricultural sector to address the growing threat of climate change.