Future projections of rainfall and solar radiation for Coastal districts of Odisha state

Understanding the various characteristics of rainfall in the current era of global warming requires investigating changes in rainfall patterns and events at the regional and district levels historically for predicting futuristic changes. This knowledge will be valuable for developing policy plans for rainfed agricultural states like Odisha, which is also highly vulnerable to floods and droughts. The changing climatic scenario and its impact on various sectors of the economy have emerged as one of the greatest challenges before scientists and policy makers all over the world in the twenty-first century. The impact of climate change is expected to be different in different parts of the globe. Some regions and economic systems may explore positive impacts, whereas others may experience losses due to climate change. The present study in assessing the futuristic changes in seasonal precipitation and solar radiation helps to determine the impact of climate change on coastal districts of Odisha state. Where rainfed crops are grown in a large scale in coastal districts of Odisha, rainfall and solar radiation are two important weather variables that drive crop growth and development that greatly influence the Kharif agricultural productivity, these two parameters are considered for the current research. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been used to derive the futuristic projections of seasonal rainfall and solar radiation for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The results of the present study showed an increasing trend of solar radiation in the future by about a maximum of +2.60 MJ/day in Puri district by 2090 under RCP 8.5 scenario. For the year 2090, there is a maximum decrease of rainfall by -399.05 mm. under RCP 2.6 scenario in the Puri district and by -394.42 mm. under RCP 8.5 scenario in Kendrapara district.