Long Term Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Telangana State

The understanding of long term variability in Rainfall and Temperature is the key for enhancing
agricultural productivity in the semi arid tropical region. A 30 year base period (1984-2014) data
of rainfall and temperature in Rangareddy district of South Telangana, were analysed to compare
with trends in various climate change scenarios. Two climate change scenarios of representative
concentration pathway (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5 were selected with ensembled data for the time
periods of 2025, 2050 and 2090. The annual, seasonal, weekly rainfall, rainy days and
temperatures were analysed. The results indicated that, the mean annual and seasonal rainfall
(MAR, MSR) predicted in 2025, 2050 and 2090 are (MAR: 916.20; 939.98; 982.60 mm & MSR:
721.84; 744.87; 731.36 mm) and (MAR: 953.36; 942.29; 1045.82 mm & MSR: 758.29; 744.34;
874.76 mm) under RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 respectively. The numbers of annual & seasonal rainy days
are decreased by 47.95, 43.87 & 42.85 % and 44.89, 40.81 and 39.79 % under RCP 4.5 & 8.5
during 2025, 2050 and 2090 over the base period. The seasonal average temperature is increased
by 10.04 & 11.71 % (2025); 14.04 & 15.69 % (2050) and 14.33 & 19.69 % (2090) under RCP 4.5
and 8.5 respectively as compared to the base period. These results would help to farming
community, policy makers and academicians for adopting climate resilient technologies in
southern Telangana state.