Tracking the turning point: an econometric lens on oilseed growth, decomposition and instability in india

India’s oilseed sector holds a strategic position in the country’s agricultural and economic framework, not only as a source of edible oil but also as a provider of employment and industrial raw materials. Despite being one of the leading producers globally, India continues to depend heavily on imports to meet its edible oil demand. This study analyzes the performance of nine major oilseed crops—castor, groundnut, linseed, nigerseed, rapeseed-mustard, safflower, sesamum, soybean, and sunflower—over the period 2010–11 to 2024–25, with a focus on growth trends, production drivers, and instability patterns. Using statistical techniques such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Minhas decomposition, and the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, we dissected changes in output into area, yield, and interaction effects, while measuring variability in area, production, and yield across crops. The results reveal that most production growth in recent years has been driven by yield improvements rather than expansion in cultivated area. Crops like linseed and sunflower showed strong gains in yield despite a contraction in area, whereas groundnut and castor expanded in acreage with limited yield progress. High instability was observed in crops such as safflower, sunflower, and soybean, while mustard and castor remained relatively stable. These insights highlight the growing importance of technological advancement, varietal improvement, and sustainable agronomic practices. The study calls for crop-specific policy interventions, especially for unstable and neglected oilseeds. Strengthening research, improving market access, and promoting rainfed resilience will be critical in reducing import dependency and achieving long-term oilseed self-sufficiency in India.