Variability and trend analysis of temperature in relation to crops in the mid-hills of Nauni, Himachal Pradesh

This study explores the shifting temperature trends and their influence on agricultural output in the Solan district of Himachal Pradesh over a 40-year period (1984–2023). The highest observed annual maximum and minimum temperatures were 34.9°C and 23.0°C, respectively, while the lowest recorded maximum and minimum values were 13.2°C and 0.2°C. Results from the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator indicate a statistically significant upward trend in both maximum and minimum annual temperatures, increasing at rates of 0.04°C/year and 0.004°C/year, respectively. A seasonal breakdown revealed increased temperature trends during the monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter, whereas a decrease was noted during the summer months. Focusing on the growing season (March to August) from 1996 to 2021, the regression models were developed between maximum, minimum, mean, and diurnal temperature and yield of capsicum and tomato crops that explained a negative relationship between temperatures and yield. Optimal productivity for both crops was achieved under the following temperature ranges: maximum temperature of 25–30°C, minimum temperature of 15–20°C, and mean temperature of 20–25°C. The findings reveal a complex relation between climate variables and crop performance, highlighting the importance of adaptive farming practices and climate-resilient strategies to maintain and improve productivity under changing environmental conditions. This research offers valuable insights for policy formulation and agricultural planning, supporting the development of climate adaptation and mitigation frameworks aimed at safeguarding future crop yields in the face of ongoing climatic shifts. However, the study faced challenges related to uneven topography, and the complex interaction between temperature variability and crop response under hill agroclimatic conditions. Despite these limitations, this research provides valuable insights into the local impacts of climate variability on agricultural systems. The findings contribute to regional climate adaptation strategies and offer a basis for developing crop-specific management practices in the mid-hill ecosystem of Himachal Pradesh.